"This paper documents how low-level measurement error for survey questions generally agreed to be highly reliable can lead to large prediction errors in large sample surveys, such as the CCES. The example for this analysis is Richman, Chattha, and Earnest (2014), which presents a biased estimate of the rate at which non-citizens voted in recent elections. The results, we show, are completely accounted for by very low frequency measurement error; further, the likely percent of non-citizen voters in recent US elections is 0."
Did you get that? The likely percent of non-citizens voting in the 2008 elections was ZERO. Despite that, one guy writes a paper in 2014 that puts that that zero number at 6%. Then someone takes this false premise in 2020 and writes an article about it extrapolating out the 6% to the current estimates of illegal immigrants currently in the country and then erroneously concludes that 1.5 million illegal immigrants might be voting this November. Except that percentage was not 6 but rather ZERO. Then a political operative testifies before Congress citing the 2020 article, that cited the 2014 study that has already been statistically debunked, about the 2008 election. That is how a lie is carefully born and nurtured but alone, it remains just a fringe partisan fairy tale. What the political powers need is YOU. They need Christians, who may feel righteously motivated, to spread the disinformation. You see an article claiming 2.7 million illegal immigrants will be voting and gosh darn it, you have to do you civic duty! Except you just accept what confirms the bias you already have. You do not bother to actually research the claims, which does not mean seeking out other biased sources. This took me 15 minutes to unravel but the information is there if you truly seek the truth and not reflexively repost memes that make you feel justified in your political outrage.
Let me be as clear as possible. There is no statistically significant number of illegal immigrants voting. Almost exclusively, any states that try to claim they found people who are illegal and registered are cases where someone became legal, registered but the system still does not reflect the change in immigration status. For example, Texas is a known partisan state that pushes fear mongering of immigrants. In 2019, the state tried to claim that they had 95,000 noncitizens on their voter rolls. It was investigated and discovered however that they were using an old list of people who at one time in the past had indicated they were not citizens but in fact had become citizens in the interim. Texas had to agree with the courts to end the review. It does not matter as much because creating the false narrative is all they wanted. Now, for years moving forward people who want to cast doubt on elections will point to 2019 and claim that it was estimated that 95,000 illegals were on the rolls. Except they weren't. Just like the 2014 study that claimed that the 2008 election had 6% of illegal immigrants was wrong, as well as the 2020 article that used it as a reference and the witness testifying before Congress citing that 2020 article. Again however, the germination of the lie only reaches viral stages because we do not hesitate to send it out, post it, or tweet. Then if a hundred people follow you and only 10% repost it just multiplies and multiplies until the truth dies a death by 1000 cuts. The ones wielding the knife however are Christians and it just should not be so. These are not matters residing in grey areas. They are known discernable facts. There are no rash of illegal immigrants voting beloved. Just like there are no Haitians eating pets in Ohio. These are not murky issues. There is truth and there are lies. Christians should be more concerned about advancing the cause of Christ than advancing political ideology and idolatry based upon disinformation that permanently damages their witness.
Reverend Anthony Wade - September 18, 2024
